An asteroid named 2024 YR4 is headed toward the Moon, creating an impact threat that could be seriously problematic if not addressed.

Astronomers are seriously considering blowing up asteroid 2024 YR4 with nuclear devices before it potentially crashes into the Moon in 2032, creating a massive debris cloud that could threaten Earth’s satellites for years. The 300-foot “city killer” asteroid has only a 4% chance of lunar impact, but that’s enough to worry scientists about the 100 million kg debris field it would create. This isn’t quite Bruce Willis and Armageddon territory, but NASA thinks nuking this space rock might be our best option – and it could take two Hiroshima-sized bombs to get the job done.

The heavens are filled with objects

Although many of us think of space as a vast and open area, and for the most part it is, there are trillions of objects floating around in space, including the small rock we live on. This new asteroid that is heading toward our Moon could be problematic. Despite having such a small percentage of actually hitting our nightly satellite, an asteroid deflection mission has begun to understand what might be required to cause the asteroid to be blown apart, certainly reducing the Moon impact and crater risk of disruption in our lives.

It’s not Armageddon, but still could be dangerous

There are thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth, and an impact with the Moon could mean the debris from the impact could be a threat to many satellites orbiting around us. Additionally, this collision could threaten astronauts and spacecraft in space orbiting the Earth, which means NASA has to create an asteroid defense program to ensure the safety of those astronauts. Despite asteroid 2024 YR4 not being scheduled to reach the Moon for impact until 2032, the threat means plans should be made now.

Was the movie on point?

A team of deep oil drillers isn’t expected to be required to blow up this asteroid. Its size isn’t anywhere near that of the movie Armageddon, but scientists are exploring the idea of nuclear asteroid disruption to blow it up or send it on a different trajectory, especially if it seems a lunar collision is imminent, and prevention is necessary. Despite not quite requiring the same level of a planetary defense strategy as many science fiction movies and shows have led us to think might someday be necessary, the asteroid 2024 YR4 trajectory is enough that scientists are taking its potential impact seriously.

Avoiding a debris field

There are dangers to blowing up an asteroid, including creating a much larger debris field than already exists around the Earth. A space rock nuclear demolition plan could create an undesirable debris field, but a collision with the Moon could create a background debris field around the Earth that is up to 1,000 times the normal levels. This would threaten astronauts and spacecraft because of the unpredictable amount of small debris that could damage anyone or anything currently in space. This debris field might be a threat to the many satellites orbiting around us as well.

What happens if it reaches our atmosphere?

Currently, scientists have calculated that asteroid 2024 YR4 has the potential to have a Moon impact, but it is not a threat to Earth. That said, if things change and this asteroid reaches our atmosphere, it could be damaging. A similar-sized asteroid entered the atmosphere in 2013 and injured 1,500 people and damaged buildings in six cities. Despite the explosion taking place about 18 miles above the ground, the explosion had the energy of 500 kilotons of dynamite.

Collaboration is required

Only a few countries on the planet have the technology and advanced equipment to head into space and disrupt this asteroid. It’s important that everyone works together to help prevent the rock from reaching the Moon. Some have suggested flying multiple large spacecraft by it to alter its orbit and prevent impact, but that would need to take place well in advance of the rock hitting the Moon. Another suggestion is to use two large nuclear bombs and blow the asteroid to pieces.

Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is on course for Moon impact near the end of 2032, creating a threat to the Moon and potentially Earth. Thankfully, the chances are very small right now, but they aren’t zero, and that means scientists are working to figure out how to keep this large piece of space rock from hitting the moon. Will they need the expertise of the team from the movie Armageddon? Let’s hope not.